MBA Journals Peer-reviewed management research from Consortium e-Learning Network

NOLEGEIN Journal of Business Risk Management

A Markov Chain Model for Assessing the Risk of Road Transport in Nigeria

  1. L. I. Okoroji
  2. H. O. Amuji
  3. B. N. Okechukwu
  4. W. I. Osuji
  5. K. O. Okeke
  6. V. N. Ikeogu

Abstract

In this paper, we study the occurrence of road accidents in the South-East geopolitical zone of Nigeria to determine the fatality within the period under study. The data for the study was secondary data collected on road accidents from FRSC Statistical Digest, 2019 - 2023. We adopted Markov chain analysis to determine the risk of road transport using the risk matrix. From the result of the study, we discovered that the frequency of road accidents in South-East Nigeria in the long run would lie between the range (1376.2, 2469.4) with probability 0.2114, followed by (3562.6, 4655.8) with probability 0.2024. And the number of accidents will fall between 1376.2 and 2469.4 with 21.14 % of the total accident that happened within the time. For consequences and with probability 0.20, the most likely number of fatalities will be equally likely across all the intervals with 20% of the fatality within the period. The risk value within the period was 6.7962. This value is very high and unacceptable; hence, we concluded that the risk was out of the tolerable limit. Therefore, we recommend urgent intervention to reduce the risk of road transport in Nigeria due to accidents.Hence, it is strongly advised that prompt and well-coordinated measures—such as enhanced enforcement of traffic laws, increased public education initiatives, and upgrades to road infrastructure—be implemented to reduce the high level of risk and improve the safety of commuters in the region.
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